rotation

2025: On Top of Mind

With the benefit of hindsight, 2024 turned out to be a much better year for investors compared to the relatively downbeat expectations earlier in the year. The U.S. stock market continued to roar, delivering 20%+ return, following a 22% return in 2023. Meanwhile, returns for fixed income also turned positive as global central banks startedContinueContinue reading “2025: On Top of Mind”

Rotation Within and Across Asset Class

In our latest publication, we highlighted that the U.S. economy is potentially at a tipping point where financial conditions are set to tighten as inflation continues to fall and the Fed has been too hawkish relative to economic fundamentals. We wrote: Since July 11th – when U.S. CPI inflation data showed price pressure continues toContinueContinue reading “Rotation Within and Across Asset Class”

Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market

Over the past year U.S. economic growth has significantly outpaced the rest of the world as tight labour market condition and robust consumer spending supported real GDP growth above the 2% trend. This contrasts with growth conditions across European and Emerging Market countries, which have fallen to anemic levels, and in China where the country’sContinueContinue reading “Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market”

Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?

Download PDF: monthly_202205_pcDownload For the past several months we have ramped up our bearish view towards risk assets amid the unfavorable global macro and geopolitical backdrop. Central banks across the world are tightening aggressively as inflation spiked to decades’ high in many developed countries and over double digit in several developing economies, while fiscal boostsContinueContinue reading “Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?”

Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity

Downlaod PDF: monthly_202012Download Earlier this week we published our long-term global themes, outlining the possibility of stronger inflationary pressure and the danger it poses to corporate sector. Meanwhile, we also publish our next year outlook last month, where we argue that Chinese growth will rebound strongly and liquidity will remain plenty, buoying asset prices. WithContinueContinue reading “Commodity Plays, Copper and Yield, Caution on U.S. Equity”

Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog

Download PDF: Monthly_202005_Betting On the Underdog Reflection on the Past Decade The financial market is characterized by the ebb and flow “leader” and “laggard” over time. The last decade was marked by the strong dollar cycle and boom in fast-growing technology stocks. In hindsight, the weak post-crisis growth outside U.S. and Fed’s tighter monetary policyContinueContinue reading “Emerging Market Equities: Betting on the Underdog”