It’s summertime and volatility in the financial market has been relatively muted compared to what we saw earlier this year. Indeed, summertime has historically been a period of relative quiet in the market before volatility started to pick up in September and October (Chart 1). For macro strategists, this is the perfect time to reflectContinueContinue reading “Twelve Questions on Top of Mind”
Tag Archives: inflation
Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time
Over the past two years we have seen diverging takeaways from various macroeconomic indicators that worked well in the past. Indicators of consumer sentiment are downbeat, but overall consumer spending has been strong. In the Canadian province where I currently live, Ontario, slightly over one million people visited a food bank between April 2023 andContinueContinue reading “Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time”
The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus
With less than three months to the end of the year, returns so far in 2024 is set to be among one of the best in recent years. The fear that the U.S. and global economy will go through a deeper slowdown amid the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in four decades has been quashed,ContinueContinue reading “The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus”
Are We There Yet?
For the past two years, all eyes have been on the timing and pace of policy rate cut. Investors had been whipsawed multiple times as the change in narrative between recession and soft landing translated to high volatility in the fixed income market. With the macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. still robust while the restContinueContinue reading “Are We There Yet?”
A Tale of Two Cities
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, itContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Cities”
Being Defensive: Early or Simply Wrong?
One valuable suggestion my former boss gave me when I started writing macro research note was to imagine myself standing one year in the future, looking back to the events that have transpired since and asking yourself if it should have been more obvious. The regional banking crisis back in March is one of thoseContinueContinue reading “Being Defensive: Early or Simply Wrong?”
Gradually, Then Suddenly: Beware of the Lag Impact of Policy Tightening
Green shoots in the economic data and the associated change in market narrative from hard landing six months ago to no landing currently have bolstered the performance of equities and pushed bond yields to near previous highs. January’s retail sales number shows consumers in the U.S. spent 3% more relative to in December, outpacing analysts’ContinueContinue reading “Gradually, Then Suddenly: Beware of the Lag Impact of Policy Tightening”
End of Year Recap: 2022 in a Rearview Mirror
December has always been a good month to reflect on what happened over the past year and set goals for the next. Although this year has been painful for most investors, in hindsight it was only logical that the above-potential growth seen following the pandemic could not last forever and the frothy valuations of bothContinueContinue reading “End of Year Recap: 2022 in a Rearview Mirror”
Ten Predictions for 2023
This year has been particularly difficult for most investors as there are few places to hide from inflation and rising cost of capital. Both equity and long-term bonds are down over 20% YTD, and even the value of cash is being eaten out by inflation, which rose as high as 9.1% y/y back in June.ContinueContinue reading “Ten Predictions for 2023“
Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation
Since early this year, we have been adamant in our view that the U.S. economy will decelerate rapidly this year amid the combination of the rise in the dollar, yields, and oil price, which all amount to a growth tax for the economy. There is little doubt that the manufacturing PMI surveys will show aContinueContinue reading “Macro Roadmap: Turning Point and Equity Rotation”
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