Download PDF: The news related to Evergrande default last month has reignite investors attention to the country real estate sector, which is a major driver of Chinese growth and strongly intertwined to the country’s banking sector. Moreover, property accounts for 70% of household wealth – a significantly higher portion compared to U.S. and Japan atContinue reading “China: Implications from Real Estate Crackdown and Growth Outlook”
Category Archives: Investment Management
EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn
Download PDF: The global economic boom unfolding in the past year is showing signs of moderation, with data from China – the first country to suffer and come out of the pandemic – currently signaling a contraction in manufacturing activities. It is very likely that the U.S. and Euro area will also see a decelerationContinue reading “EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn”
Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar
Download PDF: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI print for August shows growth continued to shift lower amid tight credit and fiscal condition, although it is probably worsened by the mini-outbreak and restrictions last month that distort the number to the downside. One important thing to note is that growth momentum in the rest of worldContinue reading “Chinese Slowdown, Policy Easing, and the Dollar”
Where Is The Correction?
Download PDF: For over a year, investors have been rewarded for tilting their portfolio towards risk assets on the backdrop of plentiful support for households from the government’s generous fiscal transfer that supported spending and Fed’s support on the credit market, preventing a crunch in liquidity of the debt market. The unprecedented fiscal and monetaryContinue reading “Where Is The Correction?”
Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate
Download PDF: Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’s pent-upContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”
Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals
Download PDF: Blow-out number of various economic indicators coming in the past weeks – PMI, retail sales, inflation – suggest that the global cycle is peaking out and the strongest period of growth is in the rear-view mirror. In the short-term, the risk assets rally that began in March 2020 is likely to take aContinue reading “Peak Growth: Cycle in Review, Commodities, and Precious Metals”
World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation
Download PDF: Developed World: Earnings and Valuation Outlook Earnings for most sector has recovered to pre-pandemic level, with health care and IT sector posting strong earnings in Q1. Growth expectations for both sectors, and materials, are strong and valuation is not demanding for the later. We believe that we are entering a structural bull marketContinue reading “World Earnings and Valuation, Silver, EM Inflation”
Turkey and EM Policy Normalization
Download PDF: I) Turkey: Back to Coma Again? Various indicators were still flashing red even before President Erdogan fired Naci Agbal – the central bank governor he appointed just four months ago – for pursuing a hawkish monetary policy. Although his firing of Mr. Agbal is akin to shooting himself in the foot and undermineContinue reading “Turkey and EM Policy Normalization”
Market Update: View on Major Asset Class
Download PDF: U.S. Equity We have a neutral stance on U.S. equity and think it is only slightly overvalued at current level (SPX: 3885 at the time of writing). However, we note that U.S. stocks are priced to perfection and will be vulnerable to bad news, on the back of expensive valuation and potential earningsContinue reading “Market Update: View on Major Asset Class”
March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand
Download PDF: Part I. World’s Equity Valuation One year after the Covid-19-induced market crash, global equity market has gone through a V-shaped recovery with stock market in many countries breaking record high level amid ample monetary and fiscal stimulus. The U.S. market valuation – now trading at cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of 32 times – isContinue reading “March 2021: Thoughts on Valuation, Oil, and Silver Demand”
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