This year has certainly been full of surprises for investors, with AI remaining the core equity investment theme. DeepSeek translated to a brief correction in the U.S. favorite AI names in February and March, followed by the U.S. tariffs announcement that escalated in April, then the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer, andContinueContinue reading “Eight Things to Watch in 2026”
Tag Archives: cyclical
The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus
With less than three months to the end of the year, returns so far in 2024 is set to be among one of the best in recent years. The fear that the U.S. and global economy will go through a deeper slowdown amid the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in four decades has been quashed,ContinueContinue reading “The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus”
All The Data in the World: Potential Recovery in Industrial Sector Amid Slowdown in Consumer Spending
One of the common problems being a macro strategist is being accused of cherry-picking data to fit whatever narrative one is conveying at the time. Over the past two years, those with more negative view of the U.S. economy pointed to the depressing figures out of the industrial and cyclical sectors, while those with moreContinueContinue reading “All The Data in the World: Potential Recovery in Industrial Sector Amid Slowdown in Consumer Spending”
Cyclical/Defensive Stocks Are Pointing to a Bottom in Manufacturing Activities. Are We Entering a New Cycle?
In June Bank of Canada unexpectedly raise its policy rate by 25 bps, defying the expectations that Canadian policymakers are done with their rate-hiking campaign. Investors learned that after a well-telegraphed “pause” central banks could again tighten the screw. Yields across the developed world surged following the BoC’s decision. Meanwhile, in the U.S. Fed ChairmanContinueContinue reading “Cyclical/Defensive Stocks Are Pointing to a Bottom in Manufacturing Activities. Are We Entering a New Cycle?”
An Update on Equity Sector
Market has been trading lower since mid-August peak and we are revisiting our recommendation on sectors given the sharp moves in cyclical and defensives of late. Below are our sector view with a brief rationale and supporting charts. Healthcare: Overweigh (2-4%) Pro: uncorrelated to the cycle and historically outperformed due to earnings resilience during downturn.ContinueContinue reading “An Update on Equity Sector“
Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?
monthly_202206_pcDownload There is no doubt that the correction in risk assets has always been a great opportunity for long term investors to further accumulate equity exposure. Investors could boost their return by gearing towards equity every time stocks fell by over 20%. The question is, how far are we from the bottom in current marketContinueContinue reading “Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?”
South Africa: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Download PDF: southafrica_full202011Download South African government released its medium-term budget plan late last October, highlighting the steps it will take to bring the country’s spiraling public debt under control. South African assets had been bombed out this year, which offers attractive investment opportunities from a tactical point of view. However, structural outlook remains bleak andContinueContinue reading “South Africa: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly”
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