Download PDF: Monthly_201907 “For months investors have been concerned about potential recession in the U.S., yet the stock market is at all time high. How could we reconcile these developments?”, asked one my friend who is working at an asset management company. The effects from reflationary effort from China has yet to be seen andContinueContinue reading “July 2019: Recession vs Reflation”
Tag Archives: recession
April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?
Download PDF: March19_PC It is tempting to argue that we are currently experiencing the “manufacturing recession”, similar to the “commodity recession” we experienced back in 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. All the data is supporting the thesis that we did have a recession in 2018, albeit a mild one: 1) industrial production and manufacturing PMI weakens inContinueContinue reading “April 2019: Is the Recession in Front or Behind Us?”
Equity Market Correction: Historical Performance of S&P500 Following Greater Than 3% Weekly Loss
Read the article in PDF (with tables): Risk Management Report on February Market Correction February 6th, 2018 Findings: 2 consecutive weekly losses greater than 3% is rare (1% of the time) and 3 consecutive losses is even more scarce (0.2% of the time) The 3 consecutive losses greater than 3% were always happening during recessionary periodContinueContinue reading “Equity Market Correction: Historical Performance of S&P500 Following Greater Than 3% Weekly Loss”
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