This year has certainly been full of surprises for investors, with AI remaining the core equity investment theme. DeepSeek translated to a brief correction in the U.S. favorite AI names in February and March, followed by the U.S. tariffs announcement that escalated in April, then the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer, andContinueContinue reading “Eight Things to Watch in 2026”
Tag Archives: monetary policy
Rotation Within and Across Asset Class
In our latest publication, we highlighted that the U.S. economy is potentially at a tipping point where financial conditions are set to tighten as inflation continues to fall and the Fed has been too hawkish relative to economic fundamentals. We wrote: Since July 11th – when U.S. CPI inflation data showed price pressure continues toContinueContinue reading “Rotation Within and Across Asset Class”
Assessing U.S. Consumers’ Health, Crisis in the East, and Repricing the Cost of Capital
The resurgence of the long end of the yield curve back to the high in October 2022 has puzzled many strategists and investors. Compared to last year when CPI inflation was at 8.3% y/y and the Fed was barely halfway through its monetary policy tightening cycle, CPI inflation today has fallen to 3.2% y/y (July)ContinueContinue reading “Assessing U.S. Consumers’ Health, Crisis in the East, and Repricing the Cost of Capital”
Into the Wild: The Known Unknowns
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” – Mark Twain I think the quote above sums up beautifully the blind spot we and other strategists may have amid the current late phase of the business cycle. After all, few, if any,ContinueContinue reading “Into the Wild: The Known Unknowns”
Gradually, Then Suddenly: Beware of the Lag Impact of Policy Tightening
Green shoots in the economic data and the associated change in market narrative from hard landing six months ago to no landing currently have bolstered the performance of equities and pushed bond yields to near previous highs. January’s retail sales number shows consumers in the U.S. spent 3% more relative to in December, outpacing analysts’ContinueContinue reading “Gradually, Then Suddenly: Beware of the Lag Impact of Policy Tightening”
Show Me the Data: Equity Outlook Through Growth and Liquidity Lenses
Sentiment and technical analysts are bullish. Fundamental and macro analysts are bearish. This captured the tone among the sell-side research I read in the past three weeks. The equity market 15%+ bounce from mid-June low has made several strategists turned bullish on risk assets, believing that we have seen the low of the cycle. TheContinueContinue reading “Show Me the Data: Equity Outlook Through Growth and Liquidity Lenses“
Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?
Download PDF: 202204_testing_timeDownload Three fundamental events have shaped the first quarter of 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and delivery of its first policy rate hike since the pandemic began, and greater reflationary efforts by Chinese authorities to stimulate growth. All these happened on the backdrop of a strong U.S.ContinueContinue reading “Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?”
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