Over the past two years we have seen diverging takeaways from various macroeconomic indicators that worked well in the past. Indicators of consumer sentiment are downbeat, but overall consumer spending has been strong. In the Canadian province where I currently live, Ontario, slightly over one million people visited a food bank between April 2023 andContinueContinue reading “Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time”
Tag Archives: investment
The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus
With less than three months to the end of the year, returns so far in 2024 is set to be among one of the best in recent years. The fear that the U.S. and global economy will go through a deeper slowdown amid the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in four decades has been quashed,ContinueContinue reading “The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus”
Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market
Over the past year U.S. economic growth has significantly outpaced the rest of the world as tight labour market condition and robust consumer spending supported real GDP growth above the 2% trend. This contrasts with growth conditions across European and Emerging Market countries, which have fallen to anemic levels, and in China where the country’sContinueContinue reading “Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market”
Are We There Yet?
For the past two years, all eyes have been on the timing and pace of policy rate cut. Investors had been whipsawed multiple times as the change in narrative between recession and soft landing translated to high volatility in the fixed income market. With the macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. still robust while the restContinueContinue reading “Are We There Yet?”
Déjà vu on Rates and Justifying Equity Style Divergence
It certainly feels like déjà vu all over again looking at the evolution of policy rate cut expectations in the U.S. this year. At the beginning of 2023 traders were pricing in one rate cut for the remainder of the year. Instead, the Fed raised policy rate by another 100 bps in the following quarters,ContinueContinue reading “Déjà vu on Rates and Justifying Equity Style Divergence”
The Unlikely Duo: Greenback Supremacy and Upturn for Base Metal Prices
“At the 1971 G10 Rome meetings, during the Nixon administration, then-Treasury Secretary John Connally said to a group of European finance ministers, “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” Following a 25%+ rally since the low in October 2023, U.S. and global equity market finally saw the return of volatility and correction amongContinueContinue reading “The Unlikely Duo: Greenback Supremacy and Upturn for Base Metal Prices”
A Tale of Two Cities
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, itContinueContinue reading “A Tale of Two Cities”
Should The Fed Cut Policy Rate If U.S. Growth Remains Strong?
Exceptional U.S. growth continues to be seen in the last quarter of 2023 and beginning of this year, with Q4/23 reading shows the U.S. economy expanding 0.8% q/q (3.2% annualized), slightly higher than the 2% trend growth observed over the past two decades, while the rest of the world lagging. The Euro Area, Canada, andContinueContinue reading “Should The Fed Cut Policy Rate If U.S. Growth Remains Strong?”
The Landing: View from the Cockpit
Two years ago, when inflation started to accelerate across the developed world and central banks were expected to hike policy rates, global macro strategists saw dark clouds on the horizon that the global economy will have to pass through. The last time inflation went out of control was in the late 1970’s, which coincided withContinueContinue reading “The Landing: View from the Cockpit”
Softer But Not Soft: 7 Top-of-mind Risks for 2024 and What to Do About It
It is only one month to go before 2023 official ended and the U.S. economy is turned out to be much more resilient than we previously thought at the beginning of the year. Consumer spending continues to be significantly above pre-pandemic trend, even after adjusting for inflation, and both unemployment rate and jobless claims remainContinueContinue reading “Softer But Not Soft: 7 Top-of-mind Risks for 2024 and What to Do About It”
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