slowdown

U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season

In last month’s piece we suggested that the U.S. labour market and economic growth have likely grown at a below-trend rate: “Below the surface, however, we are watching for the crosscurrent in U.S. labour market data that is the Achilles heel of America’s consumer-driven economy. The 3-month moving average of non-farm payroll gains have droppedContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season”

Back to… Normal?

The events that transpired so far this year have made investing a stomach-churning experience. As many investors have seen their portfolio allocation to U.S. stocks increase amid the massive outperformance in 2023 and 2024, rising volatility for the S&P 500 have also directly translated to higher portfolio volatility. The headline-driven market translated to a sharpContinueContinue reading “Back to… Normal?”

Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate

Download PDF: monthly_202107Download Global stocks continue to experience a dichotomy in recent months amid unequal economic recovery in the developed and emerging world. With vaccination rate crossing above 50% of total population and covid-19 number goes into the rear-view mirror in the rich world, both manufacturing and service sector has rebounded strongly amid last year’sContinueContinue reading “Yields Meltdown, Excess Savings and EM Policy Rate”