equity

Eight Things to Watch in 2026

This year has certainly been full of surprises for investors, with AI remaining the core equity investment theme. DeepSeek translated to a brief correction in the U.S. favorite AI names in February and March, followed by the U.S. tariffs announcement that escalated in April, then the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer, andContinueContinue reading “Eight Things to Watch in 2026”

Navigating Through the AI Revolution

“You can see the computer age everywhere, except in productivity statistics” – Robert Solow, 1987. “Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure… Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may putContinueContinue reading “Navigating Through the AI Revolution”

Twelve Questions on Top of Mind

It’s summertime and volatility in the financial market has been relatively muted compared to what we saw earlier this year. Indeed, summertime has historically been a period of relative quiet in the market before volatility started to pick up in September and October (Chart 1). For macro strategists, this is the perfect time to reflectContinueContinue reading “Twelve Questions on Top of Mind”

U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season

In last month’s piece we suggested that the U.S. labour market and economic growth have likely grown at a below-trend rate: “Below the surface, however, we are watching for the crosscurrent in U.S. labour market data that is the Achilles heel of America’s consumer-driven economy. The 3-month moving average of non-farm payroll gains have droppedContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season”

Back to… Normal?

The events that transpired so far this year have made investing a stomach-churning experience. As many investors have seen their portfolio allocation to U.S. stocks increase amid the massive outperformance in 2023 and 2024, rising volatility for the S&P 500 have also directly translated to higher portfolio volatility. The headline-driven market translated to a sharpContinueContinue reading “Back to… Normal?”

Higher Risk Premium on U.S. Assets and Fiscal Math

For the past fifteen years, U.S. assets are the only thing that matters. Foreign investors require little risk premium for investing in U.S. government bonds, which was and still is de facto safe-haven assets, and bid valuation for U.S. stocks higher. As we will discuss in the second part of this piece, comparable sector valuationContinueContinue reading “Higher Risk Premium on U.S. Assets and Fiscal Math”

U.S. Economy and Financial Market: Mean-reversion to Trend

For several years now strategists and geopolitical analysts have been talking about the changing global order. But events over the past one month have accelerated this discussion, with global investors selling U.S. equity, bonds, and the greenback. As of the time of writing (April 22, 2025), international equity – proxied by MSCI EAFE – hasContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy and Financial Market: Mean-reversion to Trend”

Global Growth Convergence in the Making (Part II)

One of the themes that could be observed in both the global equity and bond market is the convergence between U.S. and the rest of the world. Following two years of strong U.S. economy and weak growth in the rest of the world, we have seen U.S. exceptionalism start to diminish amid continued softening inContinueContinue reading “Global Growth Convergence in the Making (Part II)”

Zeitenwende (Turning Point): Improving RoW, Tariffs Implication and Equity Strategy

Olaf Scholz, the current Chancellor of Germany, delivered his “Zeitenwende” speech on 27th February 2022, following Russian invasion of Ukraine three days earlier, describing the event as a historic turning point for the country and took the opportunity to announce EUR 100 billion fund for German military spending – reversing the country’s lackluster defense spendingContinueContinue reading “Zeitenwende (Turning Point): Improving RoW, Tariffs Implication and Equity Strategy”

This Time It’s Different?

It is often said that the invention of steam engine in the 18th century was one of the world’s greatest inventions in the past one thousand years. The printing press, electric lightbulb, vaccination, and computer are also among the top of the list. These inventions are considered great not solely due to their direct usageContinueContinue reading “This Time It’s Different?”