There is no doubt that the correction in risk assets has always been a great opportunity for long term investors to further accumulate equity exposure. Investors could boost their return by gearing towards equity every time stocks fell by over 20%. The question is, how far are we from the bottom in current market correction,Continue reading “Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?”
Tag Archives: equity
Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?
Download PDF: For the past several months we have ramped up our bearish view towards risk assets amid the unfavorable global macro and geopolitical backdrop. Central banks across the world are tightening aggressively as inflation spiked to decades’ high in many developed countries and over double digit in several developing economies, while fiscal boosts areContinue reading “Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?”
Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?
Download PDF: Three fundamental events have shaped the first quarter of 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and delivery of its first policy rate hike since the pandemic began, and greater reflationary efforts by Chinese authorities to stimulate growth. All these happened on the backdrop of a strong U.S. economy,Continue reading “Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?”
Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
Download PDF: Three market moves have dominated the macro landscape in the past quarter amid the Fed tightening policy and geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe: rise in Treasury yields, strengthening dollar, and rally in oil prices. These all amount to a growth tax for consumers, which will inevitably lead to a growth slowdown in theContinue reading “Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion”
Macro Landscape and The Fed
Expectation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid longer-than-expected inflationary pressure triggered a violent repricing of U.S. stock market in January this year. Core PCE inflation in December continue to rise 4.85% over the previous year, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices, and pandemic-related items. Meanwhile, unemployment rate continues to decline toContinue reading “Macro Landscape and The Fed”
U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection
Last week the Chinese central bank finally cut one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bps from 3.8% to 3.7%, and also cut five-year LPR by 5bps to 4.60%, the first cut since April 2020 when global economy was in the midst of pandemic uncertainty. In the past two months we have also seen the creditContinue reading “U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection”
U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth
Download PDF: The 2021 post-pandemic recovery has been impressive, with record amount of fiscal stimulus propping up household spending and the corporate sector turning into a capex hyperdrive. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy and tilted toward the dovish side in the first half of the year, which fuel the froth and equitiesContinue reading “U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth”
Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico
Download PDF: Remains Overweight Russia Russia and other oil-exporting countries historically perform poorly during a global slowdown, but tighter discipline among OPEC+ and shale producers since last year has bolstered oil prices to above $80/bbl, which creates a positive spin for energy producers. We have been constructive on Russian and energy sector since last quarter,Continue reading “Positive on Russia, Neutral on Mexico”
Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil
Download PDF: Downgrade Chile and Peru to Underweight Our recommendation to trim exposure to Chile and Peru is driven by three things: downside risk in copper price, rising political risk, and aggressive tightening by both countries’ central bank. Slowdown in Chinese growth is going to weigh on commodity intensive Latam bourse heavily through the declineContinue reading “Negative Outlook: Chile, Peru and Brazil”
EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn
Download PDF: The global economic boom unfolding in the past year is showing signs of moderation, with data from China – the first country to suffer and come out of the pandemic – currently signaling a contraction in manufacturing activities. It is very likely that the U.S. and Euro area will also see a decelerationContinue reading “EM Equity Strategy in an Economic Downturn”
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