Olaf Scholz, the current Chancellor of Germany, delivered his “Zeitenwende” speech on 27th February 2022, following Russian invasion of Ukraine three days earlier, describing the event as a historic turning point for the country and took the opportunity to announce EUR 100 billion fund for German military spending – reversing the country’s lackluster defense spendingContinueContinue reading “Zeitenwende (Turning Point): Improving RoW, Tariffs Implication and Equity Strategy”
Tag Archives: consumer
Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time
Over the past two years we have seen diverging takeaways from various macroeconomic indicators that worked well in the past. Indicators of consumer sentiment are downbeat, but overall consumer spending has been strong. In the Canadian province where I currently live, Ontario, slightly over one million people visited a food bank between April 2023 andContinueContinue reading “Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time”
All The Data in the World: Potential Recovery in Industrial Sector Amid Slowdown in Consumer Spending
One of the common problems being a macro strategist is being accused of cherry-picking data to fit whatever narrative one is conveying at the time. Over the past two years, those with more negative view of the U.S. economy pointed to the depressing figures out of the industrial and cyclical sectors, while those with moreContinueContinue reading “All The Data in the World: Potential Recovery in Industrial Sector Amid Slowdown in Consumer Spending”
Assessing U.S. Consumers’ Health, Crisis in the East, and Repricing the Cost of Capital
The resurgence of the long end of the yield curve back to the high in October 2022 has puzzled many strategists and investors. Compared to last year when CPI inflation was at 8.3% y/y and the Fed was barely halfway through its monetary policy tightening cycle, CPI inflation today has fallen to 3.2% y/y (July)ContinueContinue reading “Assessing U.S. Consumers’ Health, Crisis in the East, and Repricing the Cost of Capital”
Equity Bear Market and Today’s Macro: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
The U.S. and global stock market have officially entered the bear market in June following upside surprises on U.S. inflation that was followed by the Fed having to raise its interest rate by 75bps – contrary to Chairman Powell’s comment that such size of hike is not on the table weeks earlier. Monetary conditions haveContinueContinue reading “Equity Bear Market and Today’s Macro: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”
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