It is often said that the invention of steam engine in the 18th century was one of the world’s greatest inventions in the past one thousand years. The printing press, electric lightbulb, vaccination, and computer are also among the top of the list. These inventions are considered great not solely due to their direct usageContinueContinue reading “This Time It’s Different?”
Category Archives: Investment Management
2025: On Top of Mind
With the benefit of hindsight, 2024 turned out to be a much better year for investors compared to the relatively downbeat expectations earlier in the year. The U.S. stock market continued to roar, delivering 20%+ return, following a 22% return in 2023. Meanwhile, returns for fixed income also turned positive as global central banks startedContinueContinue reading “2025: On Top of Mind”
Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time
Over the past two years we have seen diverging takeaways from various macroeconomic indicators that worked well in the past. Indicators of consumer sentiment are downbeat, but overall consumer spending has been strong. In the Canadian province where I currently live, Ontario, slightly over one million people visited a food bank between April 2023 andContinueContinue reading “Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time”
The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus
With less than three months to the end of the year, returns so far in 2024 is set to be among one of the best in recent years. The fear that the U.S. and global economy will go through a deeper slowdown amid the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in four decades has been quashed,ContinueContinue reading “The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus”
All The Data in the World: Potential Recovery in Industrial Sector Amid Slowdown in Consumer Spending
One of the common problems being a macro strategist is being accused of cherry-picking data to fit whatever narrative one is conveying at the time. Over the past two years, those with more negative view of the U.S. economy pointed to the depressing figures out of the industrial and cyclical sectors, while those with moreContinueContinue reading “All The Data in the World: Potential Recovery in Industrial Sector Amid Slowdown in Consumer Spending”
Rotation Within and Across Asset Class
In our latest publication, we highlighted that the U.S. economy is potentially at a tipping point where financial conditions are set to tighten as inflation continues to fall and the Fed has been too hawkish relative to economic fundamentals. We wrote: Since July 11th – when U.S. CPI inflation data showed price pressure continues toContinueContinue reading “Rotation Within and Across Asset Class”
Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market
Over the past year U.S. economic growth has significantly outpaced the rest of the world as tight labour market condition and robust consumer spending supported real GDP growth above the 2% trend. This contrasts with growth conditions across European and Emerging Market countries, which have fallen to anemic levels, and in China where the country’sContinueContinue reading “Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market”
Are We There Yet?
For the past two years, all eyes have been on the timing and pace of policy rate cut. Investors had been whipsawed multiple times as the change in narrative between recession and soft landing translated to high volatility in the fixed income market. With the macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. still robust while the restContinueContinue reading “Are We There Yet?”
Déjà vu on Rates and Justifying Equity Style Divergence
It certainly feels like déjà vu all over again looking at the evolution of policy rate cut expectations in the U.S. this year. At the beginning of 2023 traders were pricing in one rate cut for the remainder of the year. Instead, the Fed raised policy rate by another 100 bps in the following quarters,ContinueContinue reading “Déjà vu on Rates and Justifying Equity Style Divergence”
The Unlikely Duo: Greenback Supremacy and Upturn for Base Metal Prices
“At the 1971 G10 Rome meetings, during the Nixon administration, then-Treasury Secretary John Connally said to a group of European finance ministers, “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” Following a 25%+ rally since the low in October 2023, U.S. and global equity market finally saw the return of volatility and correction amongContinueContinue reading “The Unlikely Duo: Greenback Supremacy and Upturn for Base Metal Prices”
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