This year has certainly been full of surprises for investors, with AI remaining the core equity investment theme. DeepSeek translated to a brief correction in the U.S. favorite AI names in February and March, followed by the U.S. tariffs announcement that escalated in April, then the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer, andContinueContinue reading “Eight Things to Watch in 2026”
Tag Archives: outlook
Back to… Normal?
The events that transpired so far this year have made investing a stomach-churning experience. As many investors have seen their portfolio allocation to U.S. stocks increase amid the massive outperformance in 2023 and 2024, rising volatility for the S&P 500 have also directly translated to higher portfolio volatility. The headline-driven market translated to a sharpContinueContinue reading “Back to… Normal?”
This Time It’s Different?
It is often said that the invention of steam engine in the 18th century was one of the world’s greatest inventions in the past one thousand years. The printing press, electric lightbulb, vaccination, and computer are also among the top of the list. These inventions are considered great not solely due to their direct usageContinueContinue reading “This Time It’s Different?”
2025: On Top of Mind
With the benefit of hindsight, 2024 turned out to be a much better year for investors compared to the relatively downbeat expectations earlier in the year. The U.S. stock market continued to roar, delivering 20%+ return, following a 22% return in 2023. Meanwhile, returns for fixed income also turned positive as global central banks startedContinueContinue reading “2025: On Top of Mind”
Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time
Over the past two years we have seen diverging takeaways from various macroeconomic indicators that worked well in the past. Indicators of consumer sentiment are downbeat, but overall consumer spending has been strong. In the Canadian province where I currently live, Ontario, slightly over one million people visited a food bank between April 2023 andContinueContinue reading “Beyond the Headline Numbers: The Best and Worst of Time”
The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus
With less than three months to the end of the year, returns so far in 2024 is set to be among one of the best in recent years. The fear that the U.S. and global economy will go through a deeper slowdown amid the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in four decades has been quashed,ContinueContinue reading “The Touchdown: Tailwinds from Rate Cuts and Chinese Policy Stimulus”
Rotation Within and Across Asset Class
In our latest publication, we highlighted that the U.S. economy is potentially at a tipping point where financial conditions are set to tighten as inflation continues to fall and the Fed has been too hawkish relative to economic fundamentals. We wrote: Since July 11th – when U.S. CPI inflation data showed price pressure continues toContinueContinue reading “Rotation Within and Across Asset Class”
Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market
Over the past year U.S. economic growth has significantly outpaced the rest of the world as tight labour market condition and robust consumer spending supported real GDP growth above the 2% trend. This contrasts with growth conditions across European and Emerging Market countries, which have fallen to anemic levels, and in China where the country’sContinueContinue reading “Turning Point in U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy, and Equity Market”
Are We There Yet?
For the past two years, all eyes have been on the timing and pace of policy rate cut. Investors had been whipsawed multiple times as the change in narrative between recession and soft landing translated to high volatility in the fixed income market. With the macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. still robust while the restContinueContinue reading “Are We There Yet?”
The Landing: View from the Cockpit
Two years ago, when inflation started to accelerate across the developed world and central banks were expected to hike policy rates, global macro strategists saw dark clouds on the horizon that the global economy will have to pass through. The last time inflation went out of control was in the late 1970’s, which coincided withContinueContinue reading “The Landing: View from the Cockpit”
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