U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose significantly (+60 bps) in October amid strong Q3/23 GDP, reaching as high as 5%, before abruptly reversing this week following favourable treasury funding plan, lower-than-expected ADP employment and non-farm payrolls, and unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing PMI. This trifecta of good news for bonds has translated to U.S. 10-year yield fallingContinueContinue reading “Fiscal Dominance, Softening Employment and Manufacturing Relapse”
Tag Archives: labor market
Being Defensive: Early or Simply Wrong?
One valuable suggestion my former boss gave me when I started writing macro research note was to imagine myself standing one year in the future, looking back to the events that have transpired since and asking yourself if it should have been more obvious. The regional banking crisis back in March is one of thoseContinueContinue reading “Being Defensive: Early or Simply Wrong?”
Into the Wild: The Known Unknowns
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” – Mark Twain I think the quote above sums up beautifully the blind spot we and other strategists may have amid the current late phase of the business cycle. After all, few, if any,ContinueContinue reading “Into the Wild: The Known Unknowns”
Bank Failure Is Only One of Many Symptoms of Tight Monetary Conditions
When I was working as a junior doctor many years ago, one of my professors always stresses the importance of determining the cause (etiology) of a disease rather than simply alleviating the patient’s symptoms. The collapse of SVB in March and the associated ripples to other regional banks are one of the many symptoms ofContinueContinue reading “Bank Failure Is Only One of Many Symptoms of Tight Monetary Conditions”
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