The U.S. and global stock market have officially entered the bear market in June following upside surprises on U.S. inflation that was followed by the Fed having to raise its interest rate by 75bps – contrary to Chairman Powell’s comment that such size of hike is not on the table weeks earlier. Monetary conditions haveContinue reading “Equity Bear Market and Today’s Macro: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”
Author Archives: Journeyman
Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?
There is no doubt that the correction in risk assets has always been a great opportunity for long term investors to further accumulate equity exposure. Investors could boost their return by gearing towards equity every time stocks fell by over 20%. The question is, how far are we from the bottom in current market correction,Continue reading “Equity Market Riot: Have We Seen the Bottom?”
Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?
Download PDF: For the past several months we have ramped up our bearish view towards risk assets amid the unfavorable global macro and geopolitical backdrop. Central banks across the world are tightening aggressively as inflation spiked to decades’ high in many developed countries and over double digit in several developing economies, while fiscal boosts areContinue reading “Have We Seen the Cyclical Top in Commodity and Stock Market?”
Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?
Download PDF: Three fundamental events have shaped the first quarter of 2022: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy guidance and delivery of its first policy rate hike since the pandemic began, and greater reflationary efforts by Chinese authorities to stimulate growth. All these happened on the backdrop of a strong U.S. economy,Continue reading “Can the Stock Market Handle Fed Tightening and Slowing Growth?”
Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
Download PDF: Three market moves have dominated the macro landscape in the past quarter amid the Fed tightening policy and geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe: rise in Treasury yields, strengthening dollar, and rally in oil prices. These all amount to a growth tax for consumers, which will inevitably lead to a growth slowdown in theContinue reading “Strength of the U.S. Economy and Implications of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion”
Macro Landscape and The Fed
Expectation of a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid longer-than-expected inflationary pressure triggered a violent repricing of U.S. stock market in January this year. Core PCE inflation in December continue to rise 4.85% over the previous year, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices, and pandemic-related items. Meanwhile, unemployment rate continues to decline toContinue reading “Macro Landscape and The Fed”
U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection
Last week the Chinese central bank finally cut one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10bps from 3.8% to 3.7%, and also cut five-year LPR by 5bps to 4.60%, the first cut since April 2020 when global economy was in the midst of pandemic uncertainty. In the past two months we have also seen the creditContinue reading “U.S. Growth Outlook, Commodity and Equity Sector Selection”
Lessons from Japan: Automation and Reshoring of Supply Chain
Download PDF: There are two main drivers of global deflationary trend in the past 30 years: rising global trade allowed by the shift towards greater openness in China and former Soviet countries and the explosion of productive-age population facilitated by the baby boomer generation (Chart 1). In 1989, the wage gap between the developed worldContinue reading “Lessons from Japan: Automation and Reshoring of Supply Chain”
U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth
Download PDF: The 2021 post-pandemic recovery has been impressive, with record amount of fiscal stimulus propping up household spending and the corporate sector turning into a capex hyperdrive. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy and tilted toward the dovish side in the first half of the year, which fuel the froth and equitiesContinue reading “U.S. Equity Strategy: Sector Selection Amid Slowing Global Growth”
Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments
This research paper is prepared by and is the property of H-o-l-o-c-e-n-e.com and Putamen Capital and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other groupContinue reading “Global Macro Outlook 2022 – A Year of Policy Reversal and Cross-Cyclical Adjustments”