In last month’s piece we suggested that the U.S. labour market and economic growth have likely grown at a below-trend rate: “Below the surface, however, we are watching for the crosscurrent in U.S. labour market data that is the Achilles heel of America’s consumer-driven economy. The 3-month moving average of non-farm payroll gains have droppedContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season”
Tag Archives: us economy
Are We There Yet?
For the past two years, all eyes have been on the timing and pace of policy rate cut. Investors had been whipsawed multiple times as the change in narrative between recession and soft landing translated to high volatility in the fixed income market. With the macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. still robust while the restContinueContinue reading “Are We There Yet?”
Softer But Not Soft: 7 Top-of-mind Risks for 2024 and What to Do About It
It is only one month to go before 2023 official ended and the U.S. economy is turned out to be much more resilient than we previously thought at the beginning of the year. Consumer spending continues to be significantly above pre-pandemic trend, even after adjusting for inflation, and both unemployment rate and jobless claims remainContinueContinue reading “Softer But Not Soft: 7 Top-of-mind Risks for 2024 and What to Do About It”
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