The U.S. economy seems to continue its resiliency following the tariff-related distortions during the first and second quarter of 2025, with the preliminary reading of Q3/25 GDP showing the U.S. economy growing 4.3% q/q annualized. Consumer spending accelerated in Q3/25 while business investment and government spending remained healthy, alleviating concerns that the softening in U.S.ContinueContinue reading “Bottom Fishing Beaten Industries and Cyclical Opportunities in 2026”
Tag Archives: consumer spending
U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season
In last month’s piece we suggested that the U.S. labour market and economic growth have likely grown at a below-trend rate: “Below the surface, however, we are watching for the crosscurrent in U.S. labour market data that is the Achilles heel of America’s consumer-driven economy. The 3-month moving average of non-farm payroll gains have droppedContinueContinue reading “U.S. Economy Running Below Potential, Takeaways from Earnings Season”
Are We There Yet?
For the past two years, all eyes have been on the timing and pace of policy rate cut. Investors had been whipsawed multiple times as the change in narrative between recession and soft landing translated to high volatility in the fixed income market. With the macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. still robust while the restContinueContinue reading “Are We There Yet?”
Fiscal Dominance, Softening Employment and Manufacturing Relapse
U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose significantly (+60 bps) in October amid strong Q3/23 GDP, reaching as high as 5%, before abruptly reversing this week following favourable treasury funding plan, lower-than-expected ADP employment and non-farm payrolls, and unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing PMI. This trifecta of good news for bonds has translated to U.S. 10-year yield fallingContinueContinue reading “Fiscal Dominance, Softening Employment and Manufacturing Relapse”
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