Valuation November 2016: Semen Indonesia (SMGR.JK)

Cement business is a stable and mature industry in Indonesia, signified by the slow growth of demand in the last few years. SMGR stock price has been falling to a recent low, but is there a potential upside? In my valuation using discounted cash flow model, it results in equity value of Rp 7945/share, using 8% risk-free rate due to the rising 10 year government bond yield. From last Friday closing price, the market price has reflected the true value of SMGR equity.

Download the excel file containing the full valuation:



Published by Journeyman

A global macro analyst with over four years experience in the financial market, the author began his career as an equity analyst before transitioning to macro research focusing on Emerging Markets at a well-known independent research firm. He read voraciously, spending most of his free time following The Economist magazine and reading topics on finance and self-improvement. When off duty, he works part-time for Getty Images, taking pictures from all over the globe. To date, he has over 1200 pictures over 35 countries being sold through the company.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: