Valuasi Saham MTDL (Juni 2016)

Valuasi saham dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai metode yang diklasifikasikan menjadi tiga, yaitu metode discounted (dividen, Free Cash Flow to Equity, Free Cash Flow to Firm), valuasi relatif (PE, PBV, P/Sales, EV/EBITDA), dan pendekatan berbasis aset. Masing-masing metode memiliki keunggulan dan kekurangan, namun secara fundamental metode discounted paling digemari analis untuk mengetahui harga wajar saham, sedangkan metode valuasi relatif dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui potensi harga saham berdasarkan sentimen pasar.

Dalam valuasi ini saya menggunakan metode discounted dividen model (DDM) dan valuasi relatif berdasarkan Price/earning ratio. Metode dan asumsi yang digunakan berdasarkan teori prof. Damodaran dengan data diambil dari laporan keuangan perseroan dan morningstar.

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Harga Wajar: Rp 1060/saham

Potensi kenaikan: 45%

We value MTDL by using an assumption of 12.58% EPS growth for the next 5 years (derived from management dividend policy of 26% payout and 17% ROE), followed by 8.7% EPS growth in the 5 years after. The terminal growth used in computation is 5%, in-line with conservative Indonesia GDP growth, combined with expected decline in ROE to 8% in 2026 derive the terminal retention ratio of 62.5% (payout of 37.5%) to sustain the growth. When we use PE multplier method, the model resulted in similar amount fair value of Rp 1080/share. The average PE derived from the average of last 9 years average.

Cost of equity is derived from risk-free rate of 10-yr Indonesian government bond (7.4%), company beta of 1.053 (Pefindo), and average market return of 10.2%. As the country is expected to have rating upgrade in the future, risk-free rate is expected to decline as well to 6.5% in 2026 (this is a very conservative estimate).

Published by Journeyman

A global macro analyst with over four years experience in the financial market, the author began his career as an equity analyst before transitioning to macro research focusing on Emerging Markets at a well-known independent research firm. He read voraciously, spending most of his free time following The Economist magazine and reading topics on finance and self-improvement. When off duty, he works part-time for Getty Images, taking pictures from all over the globe. To date, he has over 1200 pictures over 35 countries being sold through the company.

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